When we predict how long we will feel about some event, we
tend to over-estimate the duration of the emotional impact. Whatever our
emotions, although we have ups and downs, we tend to return to a neutral 'home'
position within a relatively short time.
Because of our Durability
Bias we tend to overestimate the length and/or the intensity of how we
will feel about something in the future. This may be caused by focalism (def
- a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily
on the first piece of information offered (the "anchor") when making
decisions.), where people focus too much on the event in question and not
enough on other future events.
Research has discovered that football
fans were less likely to over-predict how long the outcome of a football game
would influence their happiness if they first thought about how much time they
would spend on other future activities.
I think about how I would feel if my wife
left me. I suspect I would feel very upset and believe I would feel this way
for a long time to come. The fact that I might meet someone else before long
and change how I feel does not come into my thinking. (If my wife is reading,
this is JUST an EXAMPLE :))
Getting people to think about other events that will happen
in the future and how they will react to these will reduce their misperception
about how long feelings about current events might last.
You can also do this by getting people to think only about
the over-arching impact of a desirable/undesirable event and how long the
feelings about this will last.
When thinking about how long you will feel about something, think
about the possibilities of other events changing how you feel right now.
If it all sounds contorted and/or complicated it’s not.
We can sum it up in this way:
Do not let the temporary
distract you from the long-term.
When you were young breaking up with a girl/boy friend
seemed like the end of the world.
Did it actually end?
Just asking…
TJ
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